EU Covid infection rates

I have been back living in Italy since the end of August. I worked here for over 20 years. There  is something special about Italy that still makes me feel at home ( the food & wine ?).  I was also quite prepared for the UK to impose a 14 day quarantine on returning to the UK at the end of September. However, since then the relative infection rates seem to have inverted and the UK is now way surpassing the infection rate of Italy.

ECDC 7 day Covid infection rates per 100,000 population

UK infection rates are now nearly double those of Italy!

I think part of the reason for this is that Italians suffered the worst death rate in Europe during the early months of 2020 because people were meeting inside. Outside in summer the risk of infection is tiny. Even Italians were spooked early into extreme social distancing ! Although apparently Berlusconi ignored government  advice during his stay in Sardinia .

Despite all this  he seems to be  recovering fine despite getting  COVID at age 83!


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July global temperature anomaly unchanged from June at 0.79C

My 3D calculation of the global temperature anomaly for July 2020 using GHCN-V4 and HadSST3 is 0.79C (baseline 1961-1990), the same value as for June. However the spatial distribution has changed significantly.

July spatial temperatures

Here are the monthly trends

and the annual trend after 7 months of 2020.

Annual temperature anomalies (7 months of 2020)

This is a small fall of 0.03C on June.

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Global Temperature Anomaly updated for June 2020

The global temperature for June 2020 was 0.79C based on my spherical triangulation method. Here are the monthly results based on the latest GHCN-V4 and HadSST3 data as compared to those from original V3C station data.

‘3D’ Global monthly temperature anomalies relative to a 1961-1990 baseline. The dashed red line shows  the long term average from  1998-2019

The temperature peaked in February at 1.1C and has since been falling. The Northern Hemisphere also shows a notable hotspot across Siberia as shown below.

Spatial temperature distribution based on a triangular mesh.

Half way through 2020 we can also calculate the annual temperature anomaly. This gives an average value for the first 6 months of 0.98C. For comparison I also show the results based on HadCRUT4.6 up to 2019. CRUTEM4 station data is not yet available for June 2020.

Annual global temperature anomalies. HC4-3D uses Spherical triangulation. HadCRUT4.6 is the traditional version

2020 looks set to become the warmest year to date, although the monthly trend still appears to be dropping.

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