Author Archives: Clive Best

On March 16th Neil Ferguson’s team published “Report 9” which changed government policy and triggered a “lockdown” a week later. The results of his simulation showed that the number of COVID  patients would soon overwhelm the ~4000 ICU bed capacity … Continue reading →

Update: (27/5) If you compare Sweden with a lockdown imposed on the same date as UK (March 23) then Sweden is apparently doing much better. Everyone is watching Sweden where the chief epidemiologist Anders Tegnell has resisted lockdown. Cafes, schools … Continue reading →

I have been running  the Imperial College Covid-19 model for different scenarios. The published  parameter files (on GITHUB) use an R0 value of 3.0 with an IFR of ~1%, higher than that published in February (2.4). This predicts a total … Continue reading →