Category Archives: Public Health

Imperial’s Pessimistic Model

Posted on April 6, 2021 by Clive Best

Boris has clearly been spooked by a new gloomy modelling study by the Imperial Group which puts his road map to normality in jeopardy. How is this possible when the UK’s case rate is falling and ~ 50% of the … Continue reading →

Posted in Covid-19 | 2 Comments

Road map to unlock the UK

Posted on February 24, 2021 by Clive Best

The government’s roadmap to end lockdown is all  based on the modelling from Imperial College. Here we show why their report is too pessimistic and that lockdown can probably  be ended safely sooner. The paper states Current levels of transmissibility … Continue reading →

Posted in Covid-19, Health, Public Health | Tagged | 3 Comments

The Last Lockdown

Posted on February 22, 2021 by Clive Best

When should the last lockdown end? We can estimate when it will be safe to end all lockdown restrictions in the UK using the Imperial SIR model (report 9). Life can return to normal once the natural (unmitigated) value of … Continue reading →

Posted in Covid-19, Public Health | Tagged | 16 Comments