Category Archives: Public Health

Comparisons of UK Covid Deaths with Italy

The number of cases and deaths in the UK has been slowly declining and the Government will allow Pubs and Restaurants to open from tomorrow. This post looks at how the UK’s “lighter” touch lockdown compares to that applied in  … Continue reading

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Covid model implies IFR is ~0.5%

At the beginning of March Neil Fergusson modelled the impending Covid-19 epidemic for the UK  which was expected to begin in early April and consequently reach a peak in May, all based on the infection rate assumed at that time. … Continue reading

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What SAGE got wrong

On March 16 Boris Johnson held his daily COVID briefing and for the first time introducing tentative social distancing measures. That same day Neil Ferguson had formally  published his simulation of how the UK epidemic would unfold and which suppression … Continue reading

Posted in Public Health | Tagged | 14 Comments