Category Archives: Public Health

Comparisons of UK Covid Deaths with Italy

Posted on July 3, 2020 by Clive Best

The number of cases and deaths in the UK has been slowly declining and the Government will allow Pubs and Restaurants to open from tomorrow. This post looks at how the UK’s “lighter” touch lockdown compares to that applied in  … Continue reading →

Posted in Public Health | 5 Comments

Covid model implies IFR is ~0.5%

Posted on June 17, 2020 by Clive Best

At the beginning of March Neil Fergusson modelled the impending Covid-19 epidemic for the UK  which was expected to begin in early April and consequently reach a peak in May, all based on the infection rate assumed at that time. … Continue reading →

Posted in Public Health | Tagged | 10 Comments

What SAGE got wrong

Posted on June 7, 2020 by Clive Best

On March 16 Boris Johnson held his daily COVID briefing and for the first time introducing tentative social distancing measures. That same day Neil Ferguson had formally  published his simulation of how the UK epidemic would unfold and which suppression … Continue reading →

Posted in Public Health | Tagged | 14 Comments