Category Archives: Public Health

Did the UK lockdown too late ?

I have been running  the Imperial College Covid-19 model for different scenarios. The published  parameter files (on GITHUB) use an R0 value of 3.0 with an IFR of ~1%, higher than that published in February (2.4). This predicts a total … Continue reading

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Imperial College simulation code for COVID-19

I finally managed to get Neil Ferguson’s COVID-19 simulation running on my iMAC (4.2 GHz Quad-Core i7 with 16MB of memory). So it is untrue that you need some parallel supercomputer to run these simulations. The trick though is to … Continue reading

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Social networks and epidemics

Simple SIR models essentially assume that the infection rate of any  population is homogeneous, i.e. everyone stands an equal chance of getting infected. However this isn’t really true, because some people have very large social networks, while  the majority vary … Continue reading

Posted in Public Health | 17 Comments