There has been something worrying me for a long time regarding the global warming issue. The science is supposedly proven that the build up of CO2 in the atmosphere is the main cause of a roughly 0.6 degree increase in temperature since the beginning of the 20th century. We are told that the only way to allay this is to move to renewable energy sources and this now drives the politics, and to question this is becoming heresy. However what has been bugging me is just how much direct effect does man’s worldwide energy usage itself have on climate (if any) ? By this I mean that most energy produced by humans will eventually end up as heat whether it used for transport, industry or whatever else - and this is independent of how that energy is produced. So how much heat do we actually produce and does this have any effect at all or is it insignificant compared to radiant energy from the sun? It is my common experience that cities are allways hotter than the surrounding countryside sometimes by a few degrees. So I did the following back of the envelope calculation.
Total Average World Energy consumption Rate ( fossil, nuclear,hydro) = 15 TW (wikipedia, for 2005 and increasing by 2%/year). My guess is 80% is converted to heat (2nd law thermodynamics)
Land Surface Area of the Earth = 150 x10**12 m2 of which urban areas are 1.5%
If we assume that this energy consumption is concentrated in these urban areas then the human heating effect there works out at 5.5 watts/m2.
Radiant energy from the sun is distributed unevenly on the earth’s surface but the average absorbed energy globally is 288 watts/m2 (This figure is taken from the book by Prof. Houghton “Global Change Briefing” ). This energy is then radiated from the surface as heat (infrared) and can be comparable to the human generated heating also at the surface. The greenhouse effect then just reflects some of this infrared radiation back to the surface (water vapour is the major greenhouse gas).
Direct heating by Man in urban areas comes out at approximately 2% of direct solar radiant heating.
These are just ball park figures and will depend on the latitude of the urban areas and their locations. Also not all human energy consumption is generated in urban areas but counteracting this is the fact that most large cities are in high northern latitudes. The anthropogenic effect at night and in winter will be even higher.
What temperature increase does this lead to ? We use Stefan Boltzman’s law.
(T+DT)**4 = 1.02T**4
(1 +DT/T)**4 = 1.02
DT = (0.02/4)T ( T = 285)
DT = 1.4 degrees ! (i.e. averaged temperature increase in urban areas)
So the question is : Have I got this completely wrong (quite possible) ? If not then what effect does this have on the temperature measurements that are then used to track the climate ? This heating effect needs to be subtracted out from the global temperature averages to isolate the greenhouse effect. Weather station measurements near urban areas should be removed or corrected. Maybe they are already, but I have never seen reference to it before.
It is a long hard drive from Lake Nakuru to the Serena Lodge in Masai Mara. The roads get bad 100 kms from the Mara. We were told that Mara actually means something like “spotty” since there are so few trees in this amazing expanse of grasslands or Savana that from afar gives the effect of small ”spots” of trees. The scale of the park is inspiring and it is completely dedicated to wildlife. Consequently the rich grasslands provide for about one million wildebeests and many types of antelopes which in turn provide food for the carnivors. There are many Lions, less leopards and cheetahs but also hyenas, jackals and other scavengers.
It was still very green and some impassible tracks from previous rains. The wildebeests had mostly already migrated south to Tanzania but there were still herds of perhaps 50-100 seemingly running all the time. They must be the most stupid of animals as they dive into the river Mara and drown or be eaten by crocodiles in their hundreds. When not migrating they become the target of Lions. Luckily there are so many of them that they clearly flourish.
One of the tourist “must dos” is a balloon ride at dawn over the Mara - but it is not cheap. The cost is 250 pounds per person for a ride which lasts 1 hour max. I think in earlier days they flew balloons low to see game but this disturbed the herds too much. Consequently the flights are now higher and although they must give a panoramic view over the Mara - to me it seems not worth it. Luckily we hadn’t pre-booked and turned down the last minute deal as the dawn turned out to be cloudy that day. My advice is forget it and - and use the 500 pounds to pay the bar bills for your stay in Kenya !
The Masai Mara is a unique expanse which joins into to the Serengetti in Tanzania. There are too many tourist buses which follow wildlife but they are restricted normally to set paths close to the lodges and camps. The park is large and with the Serengetti makes probably the largest remaining true Savanna wild park in the world. Tourism funds the park - so it has to be worth it. Everything seems in ballance for the widlife - Lions, Elephants, Zebras are thriving and healthy with sufficient food all round. There is no over population of one single species- (except man that is !). This is how nature must have functioned in perfect balance for millions of years until we turned up to upset everything.
Probably even this doesn’t matter in the long life of the earth - as 10000 years is just a blip in what is a very rare planet which seems to promote and sustain life.
[more photos from Masai Mara]
Posted on December 10th, 2008 in Kenya | 1 Comment »
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 Mt Kenya at Dawn |
 Lions mating |
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 White Rhino Nakuru |
 flamingos |
Mount Kenya is the second largest mountain in Africa at 5200 meters. It is surrounded by protected forest - although there have been recent problems with locals cutting down the trees recently. It serves as a watershed for various lakes including Lake Naguru, which some say has lost water. Lake Naguru is famous for its pink flamingos which feed on the green algae/ Again there have nbeen environmantal problems reducing the numbers of Pink Flamingos from there height of millions of birds. Also the town of Naguru is growing and must have run-off to the lake. Despite this it is still a wonderful site to see the flamingos and wildlife in their thousands ! We were told that the pink colour originateds from the food of algae. Either way it is a very nice spot.
Our first stop was at Mountain Lodge with its own water hole. We went for a guided walk in the forest protected by an armed guard. It seems that Buffaloos are the most deadly animal in Africa claiming more lives than any other. The males spend their time fighting for access to the 20 females under the super stud. Consequently they can attack at random. We saw lots of fresh tracks, some monkeys, antelopes etc. but luckily no elephants or Buffaloo. The advice is that when charged by an elephant to run down the steepest hill - because they cannot follow you. They are so large that they can only take gradual sideways inclines - a useful tip I am sure !
Mount Kenya itself is very beautiful with a peaked caldera covered in ice despite being roughly on the equator. It is cold at mountain lodge in the evening so if you want to wait up all night watching animals - wrap up. One amazing thing about the equator that I still can’ quite accept :
The earth rotates around the equator and coriolis forces are the effect of this rotation on gravity. In the northern hemisphere if you pull the plug in a sink the water spins anti-clockwise. One way to understand this is to remember that the sun rises in the east and sets in the west - so looking north the earth rotates anti-clockwise. This spins water anti-clockwise in the Northern and clockwise in the southern hemisphere. Right - so we get taken to a tourist place on the equator with a sign sowing the so-called exact equator. Then the guide takes a bowl with a single hole in the middle and to let it flow out. We walk 10 meters north and - lo and behold a matchstick laying in it prives that the water flows anti-clockwise. Then we move 10 meters south of the line and the matcstik moves exactly the oposite - clockwise. The piece de resitance is now to stand exactly on the equator and - I still cannot beleive this - the matchstick stays perfectly straight with o corriolis force. Is this possible ? Can the equator be really be so exactly postitioned? My only regret was not to bring Foucout’s pendulum with me !
After Mount Kenya we moved to the Serena Lodge in Lake Naguru. A very beautiful spot with giraffes elephants, lions, Rhinos graing on emense grasslands around the liake itself. We were lucky to see some Hippos in the lake alomg with thousands of Pleicans and Flamingos. The only encroachment is the town of Naguru itself as the waters of the lake need to be kept pristine clean.
[more photos Mount Kenya & Lake Naguru]
We have just returned from a holiday to Kenya. Kenya has wonderful scenery with good wildlife parks. This was my first visit and I was attracted to visit Africa again after my stay in Ethiopia. Kenya is Ethiopia’s neighbour and has a highland area around Nairobi with a large lower Rift Valley Area and coastal regions which are hot and equatorial. The equator runs just south of Mount Kenya which is Africa’s second highest mountain at 5200 meters and has year round glaciers at the very top. The country actually takes its name from the mountain rather than the inverse. Kenya was the anglified version of a local dialect word describing the misty mountain because of the glaciated summit.
Nairobi is a modern bustling town. On arrival you feel that economically Kenya is doing comparatively well and the central area of Nairobi has a feel of business and commerce - not a donkey or goat to be seen on the streets! The highways out of Nairobi are also fairly good, at least until you reach some of the country areas. Our first journey was to Samburu National Park by mini-bus - a long drive of 7 hours. It was the short wet season and there had been rains recently causing the river to swell and the park was very green. There are many groups of elephants spread around the park plus reticulated giraffes, lions, cheetahs, leopards, Thomson’s gazelles among many other animals. We stayed in the Serena Lodge near the river. This looks straight out with a view of the crocodiles basking on the shore or in the water and elephants regularly coming to cool down. The land used to belong to the Samburu tribe who are pastoral. Now they also make a living through tourism. One highlight was seeing a mother cheetah and her cub strolling past our van. Cheetahs must hunt alone and the cubs are vulnerable while the mother tracks and chases prey. Often they can lose most or all of the cubs to scavengers before they reach adulthood.
[more photos from Samburu]
A lot has happened since my last post on leaving Addis Ababa last March. Since then I left the Joint Research Centre taking advantage of an early retirement scheme partly in order to found a new company -OSVISION ( http://osvision.com) with 2 other partners - David Horby and Dave Cote. OSVision has licensed the core software for the Europe Media Monitor (EMM) developed by my ex-group at JRC (http://press.jrc.it) and has also developed its own software to provide customised media monitoring and open source intelligence services. We are also involved in Semantic indexing and Opinion mining as these applications evolve through the internet.
It is still quite remarkable that the Web (internet is actually older) really only exploded in 1993. I remember downloading Mosaic from NCSA’s web site and checking What’s New on their site until they could no longer cope. Then 2 years later I saw the first URL on a London Bus. Today the publishing phenomena has literally affected everyone’s life on the planet - and it took just 10 years . There is no doubt that the immediate access to information anywhere anytime has revolutionised human society - but has it also perhaps dumbed us down ? Where are the original thinkers ? Have we been subsumed in past knowledge ? I am not completely sure that educaiton benefits as is promoted all the time. An example is ordering food in a restaurant. Try and order something not on the touch screen at the till. Everything breaks down. The digital world can also negate common sense.
