Monthly Archives: April 2020

1918 Flu Pandemic

The Spanish influenza pandemic of 1918-19 infected about one third of the world’s human population (500 million people) at the time, killing perhaps 50 million people. It caused the worst ever death toll by an infectious disease in recorded human … Continue reading

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Covid-19 model scenarios for UK

Social distancing slows down the spread of Covid-19 by reducing the reproduction factor . If is reduced below 1,  then the number of cases and deaths will begin to fall, but how effective is this strategy long term and how … Continue reading

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Modelling Coronavirus

One should always be cautious of entering a field you know nothing about! However I wanted to understand better how epidemic models work since these are now the primary driver affecting government policy during the Coronavirus emergency. The classic model … Continue reading

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