Met Office backtracks on Global Warming

The UK Met Office has revised one of its forecasts for how much the world may warm in the next few years. It says that the average temperature is likely to rise by 0.43 C by 2017 – as opposed to an earlier forecast that suggested a warming of 0.54C. The explanation is that a new kind of computer model using different parameters has been used.   – David Shukman, BBC Science Editor

Have things finally begun to crack with the CAGW narrative?  Lets look at the recent data and compare it to Met office forecasts from just 4 months ago.

Fig 1:Comparison of HADCM2 Model results from 2000 against decadel averaged global temperatures.

Fig 1:Comparison of HADCM2 Model results from 2000 against decadel averaged global temperatures. The last point is a hypothetical value in line with the new MET office long termprediction

What is really going on here is that their sophisticated climate models are being continuously tuned so as  to “backcast” and  agree with past temperature data. There has been no warming for ~15 years. As a result the parameters are now showing little AGW at all for the next 10 years.


A scientist should ask the following question.  If predictions of GCM  models from just 2 years ago have now been invalidated by the data, how can we now have any faith in new predictions made with the same models but with various fudge factors added ?

Lets look at the new 10 year forecast and compare it to the previous forecast and data compatible with the new forecast.

Fig 2: New Met Office 10 year forecast. In Blue the their model prediction from 2 years ago. In green real data till 2012, The last point in green is hypothetical , but in line with their new prediction - final blue shading.

Fig 2: New Met Office 10 year forecast. In Blue the their model prediction from 2 years ago. In green real data till 2012, The last point in green is hypothetical , but in line with their new prediction – final blue shading.

With fuel poverty rising, energy intensive industries closing, public debt rising, and  renewable energy failing, is it perhaps not time to revisit the essentially “self-defeating” 2008 climate change act ?

The Met Office seems to be getting desperate to pin something(anything) on rising CO2 levels.

So for example Paul Homewood writes :

Following release of provisional rainfall data for the UK, showing that 2012 has been one of the wettest on record, Professor Julia Slingo, chief scientist at the Met Office, tells us

The trend towards more extreme rainfall events is one we are seeing around the world, in countries such as India and China, and now potentially here in the UK”, adding that “the long-term trend towards wetter weather is likely to continue as global air temperatures rise. “

Global temperatures have not changed in 17 years, and UK temperatures have not changed in 72 years. The only thing left from model predictions is extreme weather, so I suspect we may hear more scare stories about storms, drought, floods, snow, heat-waves, Plagues of locusts, or ladybird infestations in the coming months.

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