Could the moon have played a role in UK’s heat wave ?

An ‘Omega’ pattern of Jet Stream Rosby waves developed in early July dragging hot air up from Spain. This  coincided with a full moon with maximum summer tides.

20150701-jetstream-heatwave-France-Spain-England

Jet stream flow on 2 July 2015

I am no meteorologist but even I can understand how this ‘Omega pattern’ in the Jet Streams  must drag hot Spanish/N. African up air over the  UK.  So let’s look at the ECMWF charts from  the neap tide on June 25 and the full moon tide on Feb 3rd.

25th June - neap tide

25th June – neap tide

A  full moon generates the largest tides in the northern hemisphere in summer, whereas a new moon dominates in winter.

Full moon spring tide

Full moon spring tide Feb 2-3

So how could the Jet Stream flow possibly be disturbed by an increasing atmospheric tide? The main effect of tides is the tractional (horizontal) N-S component which is unaffected by gravity. The rotation of the earth generates a variable torque whose strength depends on the lunar cycle of neap and spring tides.

Having studied this for about a year I am convinced that statiscally the data now prove that there is an effect, particlularly in winter.

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9 Responses to Could the moon have played a role in UK’s heat wave ?

  1. Paul Maxit says:

    “…A so-called omega high pressure system centered over Eastern Europe is pumping hot air from the Mediterranean and Africa up across much of Europe…”.

    That’s what is being said concerning the heat wave.

    How can high pressure in the north suck hot air from the south ?

    The real reason of the heat wave is several strong (for the season) mobile polar highs (cd Marcel Leroux) originating from North American down to Morocco and driving warm air to the north whereas temperatures were as low as 22°C in Casablaca and up to 40°C in western Europe. Since those MPHs route were quite meridional, cold air could not spread in western Europe, as it usually does after an MPH. Marcel Leroux would describe this as a “fast mode”. Jet stream is just a consequence of what happens in the low level of the atmosphere.

    Now, tides may be playing a role about the route taken by those MPH.

    https://twitter.com/PaulMaxit/status/616187185566490624

    Nothing magic there.

    Some of the Marcel Leroux publications: http://web.archive.org/web/20140731113459/http://www.hacene-arezki.com/pages/Publications_telechargeables_de_Marcel_Leroux–2987450.html

  2. Moon not guilty!!! Sub Sahara is expending – produces extra dry heat and is spreading it in different directions – this time the Poms are the lucky ones; to have Mediterranean temp for few days.. enjoy it!

    Blame the Warmist, for being against new dams – to save extra stormwater on lands and produce extra WV, to improve the climate on the whole planet, instead, they blame CO2! Australian heatwaves from inland deserts have same effects: https://globalwarmingdenier.wordpress.com/5floods-droughts-we-dont-need-to-have/

  3. how can you tell “Moon not guilty!!!” or “Jet stream is just a consequence of what happens in the low level of the atmosphere” !!!
    Jet Stream is the driving force of the world’s climate! Jet Stream moves all the air masses at different latitudes and controls weather and climate in the world! Everything that happens in low level of the atmosphere it’s controlled by Jet Stream! I’m meteorologist and study for years been Jet Stream and its effect on climate. All thermal changes on the planet are controlled by the Jet Stream but whover moves the Jet Stream? The answer to the question is written in the moon: the Tides. Applied the tides to the fluid air (jet Stream) as it is applied to the masses ocean and you have the answer to the question! The Tides also acts in other planets of the solar system, such as Jupter, Saturn and Neptune where the altitude wind is much faster. Tides and jet Stream masters of the world’s weather and climate.

  4. Clive and Roberto,
    Don’t even bothering responding to StefanTheDenier — he is a hopeless case.

    What you should do is join the fun at http://forum.azimuthproject.org/discussion/comment/14739/#Comment_14739.

    where we are solving the ENSO problem

    Linked below is a plot of the LHS vs the RHS of the SOI sloshing differential wave equation

    SOI”(t) + k SOI(t) = F(t)

    where F(t) is the forcing function, mainly comprised of the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) with a regular 2.33 year period, along with known periodic angular momentum changes such as the Chandler wobble.

    The LHS is essentially data driven, while the RHS is the proposed forcing model. If the two sides match, you have a solution to ENSO that can extend forward in time.

    This is essentially an exact model of the ENSO / El Nino cycles, which is a significant portion of understanding natural climate variability.

    • clivebest says:

      Looks fascinating. You can see an 18.6y modulation on the QBO forcing component which must be of a tidal origin.

      I have never really looked in detail at ENSO, as I have always assumed it is just too complicated to model. You seem to be doing quite a good job though ! If I understand correctly ENSO could be simply due to inertial sloshing of the pacific ocean caused by regular inertial and gravity perturbations – Chandler wobble, QBO, tides etc.

  5. Garry Nicholson says:

    Very interesting article. I work as a professional meteorologist, and I agree that there is a possible lunar influence on jet streams and weather patterns. The concept of external forcing seems logical, as a ‘kicking’ mechanism on top of the natural variability and chaos in the atmosphere. I have researched past UK severe weather events to compare with the Moon and there appears to be a greater than expected ‘coincidence’ between storms/severe weather and the spring tide periods. Particularly Perigean spring tide periods. I haven’t looked at this in a deeply statistical manner, but ran some averages of UK rainfall etc with modest but inconclusive results. I’m sure it requires a greater study of jet stream perturbations to understand how general weather patterns are then affected.

    • clivebest says:

      “I have researched past UK severe weather events to compare with the Moon and there appears to be a greater than expected ‘coincidence’ between storms/severe weather and the spring tide periods. Particularly Perigean spring tide periods.”

      I find exactly the same. If you look at the severe storms 2013/14, then 3 of the most devastating storms coincided with maximum spring tides. That is why coastal flooding was so severe. Statstically there is also a correlation between the Arctic Oscillation (AO) and the horizontal(tractional) component of tidal forces at high norther latitudes. This implies that a strong tide disturbs the Jet Stream Flow generating larger Rosby waves.

      Furthermore there was a remarkable negative shift in AO concurrent with the recent total eclipse. A total eclipse is a perfect linear alignment of the sun and moon which generates the strongest tides.

      There is a more detailed paper under review on this which hopefully will eventually get published.

  6. You’ve got the salient idea, Clive.

    I have never been on the skeptical side of the universe, but your voice and the credentials you bring to the table are an important contribution to the climate science discussion.

    The hope is that many of these ideas can form interlocking jigsaw pieces, with the lunar and solar factors providing guiding boundary conditions to natural climate variability.

  7. Ben Vorlich says:

    In rural France great store is set by Lunar Gardening. I’ve not tried it myself I just copy what the locals do. However I have been given free Lunar Calendars from garden centres and a couple times I have noticed accurate predictions of cold weather in spring. Now this represents an accurate forecast 6 months in advance. This may not prove anything of course.

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