Future warming in Europe?

The following animation shows the 23 decadel averaged temperature from 1861 to 2100 based surface temperatures calculated by CNRM-CM5 (the French GCM) using the RCP8.5 emissions scenario.

Europe-movie

CNRM-C5 has an average CMIP5 climate sensitivity and predicts a net warming of ~4C by 2100 for the worst case scenario. It is highlighted in the plot camparison to most CMIP5 models below.

CRNM-yearly-compare

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6 Responses to Future warming in Europe?

  1. Pingback: Future warming in Europe? | Clive Best | Standard Climate

  2. Bryce Payne says:

    Clive,
    So, compared to CMIP5 (your previous post) Europe is expected to have substantial temperature impacts later than much of the rest of the more populated land areas of the world?
    Also, I noted in the CMIP5-HADCRUT4 comparison figure that both seem to predict an apparent “hiatus” in the 2000-2016 or so time frame. Interesting, no?

    • clivebest says:

      Bryce,

      It is exactly the same results as the global one. I could easily make an animation just for the US. Regarding Hadcrut4 and the hiatus. Yes there are a couple of model runs which reproduce a hiatus but this is just by chance. So either the real hiatus is a fluke fluctuation of the climate or it there is an underlying cause (AMO for example). Hoever 90% of model runs overpredict the early 20th century warming.

      The model which best fits the data is GISS-E2. It is the bottom grey curve with a DT of 3C by 2100.

  3. Bryce Payne says:

    So, again interestingly I think, if we look at the bottom grey curve (GISS-E2) a cool period (“hiatus”) shows up again in the 2000-2016 or so time frame. No need to discuss. Just seems interesting.
    That the GISS-E2, apparently most conservative and best-fit-to-data model, still projects DT of 3C by 2100 reminds me, not a climate scientist, of seemingly similar reasoning in other areas. Geomembrane liners for landfills have been proposed as the current best management practice, and adopted as though a panacea, with respect to safe long term waste disposal. Engineers who propose the practice estimate liners will have a service life of 300 years. Field experience says it will likely be much shorter, but set that aside. In the end, the current BMP based on liners is effectively condemning our descendants 300 or so years from now to deal with massive consequences of our current collective unwillingness to actually discipline ourselves with regard to waste production and management.
    I hope my point with the analogy is apparent. With relatively minor variations on how much and when, ALL of the models indicate climate change is going to happen and it will not be trivial.

  4. Bryce Payne says:

    Clive,
    this is something of an aside, but do you know if/how short-lived greenhouse gases are handled by the various models?

  5. Clive Best says:

    They are indeed handled but there are still huge uncertainties.

    With a bit of juggling the net forcing is made to look in agreement with measured temperatures.

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