The recent surge in temperature anomalies due to the El Nino event in late 2015 seems to be over. Values have fallen towards ‘normal’ in June. One recent claim is that the record anomaly in May exceeding 1 deg.C is in line with the mean projections of CMIP5 models (Gavin Schmidt). However if we compare the H4 data directly to an ensemble of CMIP5 models, then we see that the overall data still lay well below the expected trend.
It also looks like the El Nino peak is now decaying back towards an underlying trend value of ~0.5C, as happened in 1998 and 1974. July’s data will be interesting to see if this trend is continuing.
Finally shown below is an animation of the spatial dependency for 2015 and 2016 so far. This shows the rise and decay of the El Nino hot spot west of Chile.
I am using a linear colour scale with temperature. Some of the more scary versions of this plot (GISS) use a logarithmic colour scale with a low ‘hot’ threshold for enhanced visual effect. I think my scale is better because it suppresses small scale noise of ± 1C in a single cell.