European Winters

The technique of triangulation of station data allows a neat way of visualising regional “climate change” and also the year to year variation.  Here are two animations for Europe. First a replay of 2016.

Monthly temperature anomalies over Europe for 2016 relative to the 1961-1990 average

The second animation shows all winter January temperatures from 1880 to 2016. Extreme winters of 1942, 1947, 1963 and even 2010 are particularly noticeable. Scale shown is Blue to Red -10C to +10C from normal. Black are extreme temperatures out of scale.

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2 Responses to European Winters

  1. Ron Graf says:

    Clive, nice work on your triangulation method climate reconstructions.

    I notice in the animations of the global record that NH continental extremes, both high and low, clearly stand out against the ocean and SH fluctuations. I understand that land has only about 10% of the heat capacity of oceans and the jet stream oscillations of arctic air into the continents are thus un-dampened, but seeing the graphical extremes makes one wonder about the common claim that GHG is causing global health or agriculture problems due to “extreme weather.” The GMST increase is insignificant in comparison to the natural see saw.

    Unrelated to this, Clive, I am wondering if you have considered studying the ship measurement biases. It is clear to me that insufficient attention has been given to the calibration of methods including, various types of buckets, engine cooling water intake temperature gauges, buoys and Argo robots. Knowing that over most of the 137-year record there existed little concern for accuracy or sampling global temperature, and that SST accounts for 70% of GMST, I am wondering the audit of a few grid cells would reveal bias.

    • Clive Best says:

      Ron,

      Yes by far the largest variability month to month and year to year is in the northern continental regions. It is still much larger than any AGW signal. As you say that is best reflected in the SST measurements. CRUTEM4 and BEST show that land on average seems to have warmed faster than Oceans since 1950, but of course that can’t be true indefinitely as that would give non physical results.

      The claim is that the raw SST bucket measurements before ~ 1940 were biased too low, but the whole correction procedure seems tome to be mostly guesswork. The only values you can be believe are those since the satellite and floating buoy era.

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