Central England Temperatures – Spring Record

The Met Office announced that this Spring saw record temperatures in  Wales and Northern Ireland. England was 2nd warmest behind 2011, while Scotland was  fifth warmest. However it was the Central England Temperature (CET) record which seems to have hit the news media, because it shows the warmest year for those stations that contribute.  Let’s have a look.

Yes, 2017 (10.3C) just scrapes past 1893 and 2011 which tied for the previous record of 10.2C. You can also see that there is a long term warming trend which also shows a steeper rise after about 1980.  What about the other seasons?

Here are the trends for all 4 seasons up to 2016

Monthly averaged temperatures for winter(DJF), Spring (MAM), Summer (JJA) and Autumn (SON)

You do see  similar rises in Winter and Autumn, but strangely no significant change at all in summer. These increases still remain small compared to annual variability, for example 2013 was among the coldest Springs on record.

Is there now clear evidence that 400ppm of CO2 is affecting temperatures in the UK? Lets take a look at the annual data.

Annual CET averages. The Blue curve just shows Moana Loa CO2 data extrapolated back to 1750. It has an arbitrary scale.

I think there  is an effect, but make your own mind up.

What about the Little Ice Age? Between 1607 and 1814, there were a total of seven major frost fairs held on the frozen River Thames. The Thames also froze in 1963 and in 1947 and sea ice formed around some beaches.

View from Windsor in 1963

I still remember 1963 because as a small boy I went sledging every every weekend for nearly 3 months. Hamleys sold out of sledges!

 

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