Tidal effects on the Jet Stream this winter

The “Beast from the East” blast of freezing temperatures resulted from a strong kink in the Jet Stream dragging Siberian air over Europe. This was evident by a sharp drop in the Arctic Oscillation coincident with strong tides over northern latitudes. These strong tides were due to the last in a series of “Supermoons” which occur when the moon is near perigee and simultaneously the earth is near perigee with the sun.

The top trace is the Arctic Oscillation (left y-scale) and the bottom traces are the Tractional tidal force at 60N and 45N calculated using JPL ephemeris.

This was no coincidence, because atmospheric tides in the stratosphere can indeed distort the Jet Stream flow.  You can read the background to all this here.

Evidence of a tidal effect on the Polar Jet Stream

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11 Responses to Tidal effects on the Jet Stream this winter

  1. This was no coincidence, our research is unique in the world on climate science and meteorology, and explains the influence of gravitational force (Tides) on the JS (polar Jet Stream).
    the only scientific research that explains the variations of the JS on a weekly basis,
    in a complete monthly period. The Moon influences the climate and meteorology on earth,
    and this also happens on the other planets in the solar system.
    Also on other important planets of the solar system, the gravitational force and the orbit of their satellites (moons), controls the flow in altitude and atmospheric events. The research on the Tides and the jet stream, is the future of climate science and meteorology,
    It is important to give research funding and to change the physical-mathematical models with the Tides. ECMWF-METOFFICE-GFS-ENS .The research “evidence of a tidal effect on the polar Jet Stream”, is the future of science on natural climate changes related to astronomical parameters: Tides>Jet Stream

    • Ron Graf says:

      If you can’t show tides are man-caused I’m afraid you are out of luck.

      • Clive Best says:

        If most trade flows from East to West then it must slow down the rotation of the earth, making tides last longer ! 😉

        • Ron Graf said:
          “If you can’t show tides are man-caused I’m afraid you are out of luck.”

          Actually, isolating the variations due to tidal forcing is going to more clearly discriminate the AGW factor in the temperature trend.

          Daily cycles, seasonal cycles, and tidal cycles are all zero-sum and contribute nothing to the trend, so are considered nuisance factors in a trend analysis. (And don’t come after me about calling it a nuisance, as that is a standard statistical term)

  2. the PEG had a dominant flow of the Jet Stream from east to west. Surely the tides and the stratwarming have generated a series of colder winters. But there have been no mild winters and hot summers. Tides are a cause of natural climate change, it is important to study tides in the past and to analyze climate periods over time.
    the flow blocks of the JS, together with the retrograde flow, are important effects of significant climatic changes of the past. The strong Tides together with stratwarming records, are the key to open important studies for the climate change and meteorology.he winter of 1683-1684 in the period of the PEG, was the coldest year of the PEG. In winter 1685 inverse situation with very mild temperatures. the difference was the presence of flow from the west and not from the east.

    • AGW does not exist. variations in temperatures cause an effect of the distribution of air masses, carried by the flow of the jet stream. Tropospheric flow fluxes, meridian and retrograde fluxes, are important configurations for generating significant climatic changes. These variations of the JS flow, are generated by the Tides and astronomical effects.

      • To model the effect of tidal forcing on a behavior such as ENSO, one first solves Laplace’s tidal equations along the equatorial thermocline. These are essentially the same equations as used in GCMs but the symmetry along the equator allows a simplifying solution.

        Then you apply the gravitational forcing, calibrating the lunar and solar ephemeris to a training interval based on an unfiltered ENSO time series such as SOI. This is more tricky because, as with conventional tidal analysis, the weighting for the relative strengths is unknown.

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        One of these charts is the model fit and the other is extrapolated over a different interval. You might be able to distinguish between the two if you look close enough.

    • Clive Best says:


      AGW does exist. The only way the earth can cool is through radiating heat (IR) back to the vacuum of space, either directly from the surface or via IR emitters (GHG) in the atmosphere. So if we double CO2 it will slightly reduce the IR energy emitted ( mainly due to the lapse rate) and cause the surface to warm slightly. The unknown is whether that warming is so serious that we have to close down 20th century living, or instead benign enough so that we can adjust more slowly. I favour the second option !

      There are more urgent environmental problems.

      • Hi Clive, the problem is that CO2 is not a negative effect, but a positive effect for the Earth. The pollution of the planet is an evident reality, but the climate has its own rules completely independent from the anthropic effect. The climate on earth has short, medium and long-term changes, constrained by a complicated mechanism, between gravitational astronomical parameters, solar flux (stratwarming), important and periodic variations of the jet stream. If an AGW were present, it would cause a general increase in temperatures, with increasing values ??increasing. In reality the masses of cold air are well distributed and have record values. environmental research and education must run on a track parallel to the climate, never converging. Even in the Planet’s past climate, we have had dramatic climate changes without CO2 problems. If in the hot period 1200-1800 A.C. and cold 1400-1870 A.C. there had been various professional weather stations, we would have had a distribution of temperatures, like the current one, with cycles, warm, mild, cool, very cold, without CO2 problems. CO2 effect is negligible, as the forcing on climate change are all dependent on natural causes. Clear evidence of natural climate change, the detection of the Arctic pack, increasing surface compared to other years. In Arctic there is an active volcanic fault extending from Greenland, Iceland and the coasts of central Siberia, the Gakkel Ridge,giant submarine volcanic chain, extended for 1125 miles, with obvious geothermal effects, totally ignored by AGW researchers. every thermal variation on the Planet has a precise cause-effect, from the configuration and persistence of the Jet Stream, moved by the Tides and stratwarming effect (solar causes). also the Sapienza University of Rome confirms this explanation of natural climate change, not anthropogenic climate change. AGW is an environmental political cause, not scientific research. very important for natural climate changes, research on Tides, solar flow (stratwarming), Jet Stream.

      • geran says:

        Adding more CO2 to the atmosphere would increase the amount of heat energy that could be radiated to space. Any increase in heat energy returned to the surface (back-radiation) would have no effect on temperatures. When I purchase something, using a large denomination currency, the change I get back does not increase my wealth.

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