The Office for National Statistics (ONS) Covid-19 infection survey is based on random testing of a representative sample of the public in England. It is updated once a week. This gives by far the clearest estimate of the overall infection rate within the community ( The data actually use fortnightly results so the weekly figures represents a rolling average of infections). The results for July 8 show that the level of active infections have fallen to roughly 0.04% of the population and seems to be levelling off at that level. About 1 in 4000 people are currently infected with COVID-19 in England. ONS provide an embedded version of their results which I am hoping gets updated weekly.
The population of England is 56 million people so an infection rate of 0.03% means there are currently ~ 14,000 people with Covid-19 Another way to see this is to look at the risk of anyone in the public catching COVID-19.
This says that on average there is roughly a 1 in 2500 chance of being infected with COVID-19 each week. An alternative narrative is that with this level of infection it would take 50 years for everyone to catch COVID-19 at least once and a further 5000 – 10000 years to actually die from it. This assumes there is no herd immunity or that any vaccine available.
Here are the regional infections for England.
The graphs in this post should update automatically as the ONS updates their survey results each week. If so I will make a new “widget” !
We shall see next week!