Tag Archives: COVID-19

Sweden

Posted on May 26, 2020 by Clive Best

Everyone is watching Sweden where the chief epidemiologist Anders Tegnell has resisted lockdown. Cafes, schools and restaurants have all remained open throughout. Their policy of voluntary social distancing measures while protecting the elderly seems to be working. I ran Ferguson’s … Continue reading →

Posted in Public Health | Tagged | 11 Comments

Did the UK lockdown too late ?

Posted on May 24, 2020 by Clive Best

I have been running  the Imperial College Covid-19 model for different scenarios. The published  parameter files (on GITHUB) use an R0 value of 3.0 with an IFR of ~1%, higher than that published in February (2.4). This predicts a total … Continue reading →

Posted in Public Health | Tagged | 10 Comments

Covid-19 model scenarios for UK

Posted on April 10, 2020 by Clive Best

Social distancing slows down the spread of Covid-19 by reducing the reproduction factor . If is reduced below 1,  then the number of cases and deaths will begin to fall, but how effective is this strategy long term and how … Continue reading →

Posted in Health | Tagged | 12 Comments