Tag Archives: COVID-19

ONS Covid Infection Survey

The Office for National Statistics (ONS) Covid-19 infection survey is based on random testing of a representative sample of the public in England. It is updated once a week. This gives by far the clearest estimate of the overall infection … Continue reading

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Covid model implies IFR is ~0.5%

At the beginning of March Neil Fergusson modelled the impending Covid-19 epidemic for the UK¬† which was expected to begin in early April and consequently reach a peak in May, all based on the infection rate assumed at that time. … Continue reading

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What SAGE got wrong

On March 16 Boris Johnson held his daily COVID briefing and for the first time introducing tentative social distancing measures. That same day Neil Ferguson had formally¬† published his simulation of how the UK epidemic would unfold and which suppression … Continue reading

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