Tag Archives: COVID-19


Update: (27/5) If you compare Sweden with a lockdown imposed on the same date as UK (March 23) then Sweden is apparently doing much better. Everyone is watching Sweden where the chief epidemiologist Anders Tegnell has resisted lockdown. Cafes, schools … Continue reading

Posted in Public Health | Tagged | 32 Comments

Did the UK lockdown too late ?

I have been running¬† the Imperial College Covid-19 model for different scenarios. The published¬† parameter files (on GITHUB) use an R0 value of 3.0 with an IFR of ~1%, higher than that published in February (2.4). This predicts a total … Continue reading

Posted in Public Health | Tagged | 10 Comments

Covid-19 model scenarios for UK

Social distancing slows down the spread of Covid-19 by reducing the reproduction factor . If is reduced below 1,¬† then the number of cases and deaths will begin to fall, but how effective is this strategy long term and how … Continue reading

Posted in Health | Tagged | 12 Comments