Tag Archives: COVID-19

Did the UK lockdown too late ?

I have been running¬† the Imperial College Covid-19 model for different scenarios. The published¬† parameter files (on GITHUB) use an R0 value of 3.0 with an IFR of ~1%, higher than that published in February (2.4). This predicts a total … Continue reading

Posted in Public Health | Tagged | 10 Comments

Covid-19 model scenarios for UK

Social distancing slows down the spread of Covid-19 by reducing the reproduction factor . If is reduced below 1,¬† then the number of cases and deaths will begin to fall, but how effective is this strategy long term and how … Continue reading

Posted in Health | Tagged | 12 Comments