Category Archives: Health

Road map to unlock the UK

The government’s roadmap to end lockdown is all  based on the modelling from Imperial College. Here we show why their report is too pessimistic and that lockdown can probably  be ended safely sooner. The paper states Current levels of transmissibility … Continue reading

Posted in Covid-19, Health, Public Health | Tagged | 3 Comments

Covid-19 model scenarios for UK

Social distancing slows down the spread of Covid-19 by reducing the reproduction factor . If is reduced below 1,  then the number of cases and deaths will begin to fall, but how effective is this strategy long term and how … Continue reading

Posted in Health | Tagged | 12 Comments

Modelling Coronavirus

One should always be cautious of entering a field you know nothing about! However I wanted to understand better how epidemic models work since these are now the primary driver affecting government policy during the Coronavirus emergency. The classic model … Continue reading

Posted in Health | Tagged , | 34 Comments