The full data for 2024 became available this morning so I was able to calculate the global annual temperature. 2024 saw a strong continuing El Nino year which was superimposed onto the the underlying decadal trend which remains stable as shown in red . These are all based on the spherical triangulation method.
The monthly data shows the detail including a slight fall in temperatures from the peak El Nino effect. 
Recent monthly trends up to December 2024
The details of December also that shows the main areas warmer than normal were mostly in the continental northern land masses.
Today there has also been a lot of media fuss because the limit of 1.5C warming since pre-industrial times has apparently been breached this year (it hasn’t yet statistically). However the more reliable decadal temperature measurements show this won’t happen definitively until about 2080.
“Today there has also been a lot of media fuss because the limit of 1.5C warming since pre-industrial times has apparently been breached this year (it hasn’t). However the more reliable decadal temperature measurements show this won’t happen definitively until about 2080.”
What’s your estimate (with errors if possible!) for 2024 temperatures vs “pre-industrial” and what’s the time period you’d use for “pre-industrial”? What if you had to make an updated background warming estimate e.g. using LOWESS?
I doubt we have any accurate data on global temperatures before about 19 50. The data is biased by inconsistent measurements and poor coverage. Allowing for that we have had probably about 1C rise in average temperatures. We are actually having a very cold spell in the UK right now with permanent ice, but I remember frozen lakes from my childhood lasting weeks that you could walk on. There is definitely also a city effect (cars, houses etc.) which keeps temperatures higher than normal.
If I had to make a guess then I would say it is 60% an enhanced greenhouse effect and 40% other human other activity ( deforestation, transport, cities, and various COP conferences! and other elite hypocrisy )
Right but what’s your estimate (with errors if possible!) for 2024 temperatures vs “pre-industrial” and what’s the time period you’d use for “pre-industrial”? What if you had to make an updated background warming estimate e.g. using LOWESS?
The best estimate is the decadal trend shown in red, So for 2024 that equates to 0.8C + 0.4C = 1.2C above pre-industrial temperatures
The decadal average is the best estimate of temperature trends (red points)
I doubt we can really be sure of global temperatures before 1900 but if we take the decadal value for pre-industrial we get -0.4C which makes 1.63C with an error of 0.1C since pre-industrial, So yes it gives the same result as everyone else.
Thanks Clive, I thought that’s what your data looked like and I was struggling to work out how the text linked to the numbers!
What would your definition be for breaking 1.5 C statistically?
I know this is a tricky question, I’ve been wrestling with it myself and have seen a lot of takes. It looks like you’re shooting for a decade-mean of +2 C versus preindustrial before being confident about crossing 1.5 C?
When the decadal trend reaches 1.2C
1.2 C relative to your current baseline, so ~+1.6 C versus your closest “preindustrial” time?
Looks like your 2010-2019 average is somewhere around +0.8 C anomaly? So if “this won’t happen definitively until about 2080” you expect about 0.4 C warming from the 2010s to the 2070s?
“2024 saw a strong continuing El Nino year”. What propagandist rubbish. The 2024 El Nino was a puny event, see https://psl.noaa.gov/enso/mei/. Why no mention of Hunga Tonga and its resulting spike in global temperature which you disguise as being due to El Nino?
You’re probably right ! I wrote this post in a hurry.
Hunga Tonga has been ignored by most mainstream climate scientists.
5000+ google scholar hits suggest that mainstream climate scientists have not ignored Hunga Tonga (https://scholar.google.com/scholar?hl=en&as_sdt=0%2C9&q=hunga+tonga+climate&oq=). It is just that the best estimates are that Hunga Tonga had a small, or even cooling, net influence – see, e.g., https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2024JD041296. But there’s a cottage industry of non-scientists who insist contra to all the evidence that CO2 isn’t causing warming (or, even worse, that anthropogenic CO2 emissions aren’t the cause of the atmospheric concentration increase), but jump on any other explanation with almost zero evidence (Hunga-Tonga, cosmic rays, undersea volcanoes, etc. etc. etc.).
Amongst all the ideological rhetoric of the pro Climate Change lobby, It is sad that no-one seems prepared to acknowledge the huge effect the 150 million tons of water injected into the Statosphere by Hunga Tonga in 2022 have had on world temperatures, floods and water events generally. It is never mentioned. As soon as the H2O permeated downwards into the lower Strat., upper Troposhere in 2023, world weather events, floods and temperatures have been going haywire, with the ACTUAL warming effect of water becoming apparent. It is beginnig to disipate now , and we will probably return to the apparent cooling from the high of 2016 over the next few years, as we again return to the cooling of the latest Grand Solar Minimum. Particularly as we drop over the hump of cycle 25. Perhaps then, there will be realistic sanity in the conversation, and the morons will actually notice the massive snow and other cooling events we have been experiencing over the last half dozen years or so.
I am certainly not referring to you Clive.
Assuming a reasonable global average of column water vapor to be 20 kg/sq.m., the 150 million tons of water ejected by Hunga Tonga would account for an increase of ~0.00196% in the water in the Earth’s atmosphere. That cannot be attributed to all the temperature, flood and water extremes that you mention. Maybe use the term “moron” more sparingly?
Thanks, as always, Clive, for ringing the bells to clarify between weather and climate, and whatever transpires in one regional does not extrapolate globally. Now, the generalized Artic warming, thats seems somewhat in line with model forecasts fro 10 years ago, but are there regional influences I’m not accounting for?