January and February 2025 global temperatures were slightly cooler than December. The strong El Nino from last year has clearly ended. The average temperature of the 1st 2 months of 2025 were 1.24C above the reference period (1961-1990) with clear cooler temperatures in the US.
The monthly temperature data is as follows
There is a clear levelling down in global temperatures since the record 1.45C in Sep 2022. There is another effect which normalisation (pair wise homogenisation) has, which is to modify recent monthly temperatures slightly.
Hello Clive,
I wonder what the response will be if the “leveling down” continues !
regards
Paul
Basically natural temperature variation is still dominant. However I suspect there has also been an in built bias to reject those stations which do not show compliant warming.
The truth is somewhere in the middle. Yes of course human civilisation has effected the environment. The earth only warms slightly if the troposphere increases in hight. The net effect is small and linear. I see no “tipping points” !
Clive, If you really believe natural climate variability is dominant, better time spent in modeling that. Then can discriminate the piece parts of the actual temperature into man-made and natural. One tidal forcing can model ENSO (NINO4), AMO, PDO, NAO, IOD, Modoki (EMI), NPGO, Atlantic Nino, and regional SLH (such as Sydney Bay) by just adjusting the standing-wave modes. https://github.com/orgs/azimuth-project/discussions/17#discussioncomment-12621276
The odd one out is the QBO, which doesn’t allow standing wave modes because it is longitudinally invariant. It thus also apparently ignores certain tidal factors which excite wavenumbers > 0.
Like this ?
https://clivebest.com/blog/?p=5937
You know that I know that because I commented on the post at the time. If you look, I was concerned about the correlation coefficient. Unless its bigger than single digits or can cross-validate, it’s hard to convince others. Alas, the tidal forcing on the NAO also operates at longer time scales than the daily. Need to low-pass filter the time series to expose that clearly
Sorry Clive, was September 2023 not the record month? The 1.45 that is shown looks like it was set in September 2023 not 2022.
Hi Clive, pls monitor the temperature drop on Earth, based on the latest info from the SMTV, https://suprememastertv.com/en1/v/276584094420.html. It is an update of the original warning about the worldwide explosions on Earth from June to November, 2025, caused by the anticipated super solar storms and the weakened Earth’s magnetism due to the polar shift (REF: https://suprememastertv.com/en1/v/273931662719.html). We invite you to visit SupremeMasterTV.com and their Fly-in News for the exclusive, firsthand updates on the universal events not found elsewhere. If you have any questions or comments, please don’t hesitate to contact us at Heartline@supremastertv.com.