Here is a list of the estimated Natural Gas and Oil reserves remaining to be exploited.
- Global Based on current consumption rates and known reserves, oil is expected to run out around 2052, while natural gas may last until 2060. These estimates suggest most fossil fuels will be largely depleted during this century. However, these are not exact deadlines, as new technology and higher prices can make previously inaccessible resources viable
- UK Reserves: As of late 2024, the UK has roughly 2.9 billion barrels of oil equivalent contained in proven/probable reserves.
Future UK Production: Estimates vary from 3.7 to 7.5 billion barrels of oil and gas that could still be produced from UK waters, depending on investment and exploration.
Currently the UK policy is to block any new Gas and oil fields and to expand renewables resources instead! mainly all due to Ed Miliband!
However it still remains true that nationally and eventually globally, we will have to source our future energy needs on alternative sources within the next 60 years, and the most reliable of these is Nuclear Power.
France is leading the way for converting their electricity generation to Nuclear Power. They have already proved that it can be done, while other countries are still trying instead to rely on renewable energy sources. Of these the most proven of these is Hydroelectric power generation, but you really need some high mountains with a strong water source. There are only a limited number of countries with the required topology!
Wind turbines, both on shore and offshore, can generate significant amounts of power but only sometimes because this is simply dependent on the weather. Consequently output can often vary erratically on an hourly basis. This means that alternative power resources must also be available at short notice to avoid blackouts. Currently Gas power stations provide this balancing role to avoid any blackouts. Somehow in the future all this must be replaced by an alternative source. One possibility discussed for this would be to use excess wind power at night to pump water up hill to reservoirs for later release.
If we are to convert to electric cars then the extra electricity demand can perhaps be limited to night-time charging, which is then estimated to add 2.5% to net demand provided daytime charging is limited to use only Solar generation. The grid will need extension to handle all this.
In the longterm say-100 years from now we will either have a Nuclear Power based Grid, or else face a collapsed return to a pre-industrial existence.
Hello Clive
why there is so much antipathy towards nuclear really is criminal IMHO.
1, The UK holds approximately 110,000 tonnes of depleted, natural, and low-enriched uranium (DNLEU).
2, The UK has roughly 140 tonnes of civil plutonium.
By combining these two in fast reactors, the UK could generate enough electricity to power the country for centuries without mining or importing a single new gram of uranium.
But sea breeze and sunshine ? These are 13th century solutions that cannot support a modern technological country. We’re destined for subsistence living by all accounts as “Green” gets its way
The only “Green” we will have is mold on the corpse of the UK.
Forbin
The antipathy originated with a change of heart by Tony Benn who sacked Walter Marshall ! who had a well organise plan to expand UK Nuclear Energy. Yes it is crazy how the plans for fast reactors were disrupted by non scientists.
Hi Clive, I think you are a bit too pessimistic about hydrocarbons running out. ‘Reserves’ is simply a category of identified resources that oil companies believe they can extract commercially at the moment. But all companies have lots of additional identified resources that they either haven’t classified yet or are not yet economic. Added to this there are still huge volumes to be discovered in places such as the Zagros fold belt, North Siberia and other areas. Finally there are the shale gas/shale oil plays which have really only been exploited in the US so far (with Argentina and others now recognising the potential). There are many other areas where these types of plays could be exploited. Ultimately it is a question of economics. At the right price the supply is effectively infinite – but of course eventually other energy source will prove to be cheaper and we will abandon oil and gas. Sheikh Yamani made the point well when he noted that the stone age did not end because we ran out stones…same for hydrocarbons. Joe Brannan
I expect you’re right that oil resources could double at the right price. Please tell Miliband that the same logic applies to North Sea Oil. He prefers to waste money on intermittent Off shore wind farms !
That first sentence is the wrong way round.
To get your annual report past the auditors and the Stock Exchanges you have to declare your reserves and resources according to defined terms. And there are people who do check. Although it’s more relevant to metals, it does apply to oil and gas too.
To be classed as a reserve, the oil or gas has to be known, you have to have the legal right, a licence if you like, to extract, and be able to do that for profit at current prices and using current technology.
Resources are everything else which is provably out there.
A sudden increase in prices increases what you can call reserves in your report to investors, which does get checked, and reduces what you can declare as resources.
There was a period in 2007-2014 i think when prices of metals reduced and the declared reserves went down because of the definition used in reporting them. Exact dates I can’t remember, but some people misinterpreted the drop in declared reserves as meaning we’re genuinely running out.
Fear politics, to suppress and to tax.
We survived a global war with out any problem.
And science is al lot of guess work and funding you get to say things are bad.
Meteorites brought water to earth right ?
Russians found oil on impossible depths.
less Population growth is the solution.
India Pakistan Asia. The number of consumers.
White Hydrogen and so many other things.
Fusion ?? Thorium etc etc.
Science likes bad news for funding.
Ban bitcoin mining and the ai hoax get green computers
Or reduce the incentive for bitcoin mining by legalising those things that bitcoin is useful for. Thereby increasing economic freedom and reducing the usefulness of bitcoin as an alternative for normal currency.
There is no doubt that hydrocarbons will deplete further across mature basins. Investment is generally decided by private companies NOT GOVERNMENT. Governments role is to optimally exploit the resources that are the sovereign property of the state/people. If companies deem the risk too high and the returns too little then they do not invest. Importing from despots and dictators instead of producing our own is lunacy.
Ed Miliband and Labour are displaying Marxist control deeming the state knows best and forcing high prices of energy upon the population while unnecessarily accelerating job losses in oil and gas, rejecting a fiscal take, opening up balance of trade deficit during transition and impoverishing the British people. He and Labour will be held accountable and I think they are headed to never being re-elected while energy prices remain so high keeping their incompetence and arrogance in the mind of the voting public.
I agree with you. Miliband is an ideologist with no idea of energy security. All UK wind farms are regularly at Net Zero energy !