Supermoon weather forecast !

Today and tomorrow there is  a “supermoon” which occurs when  a full moon coincides with the lunar-earth orbit at perihelion. The moon is then about 30,000 miles closer to the earth causing “perigean” spring tides some 20% stronger than normal. In summer this occurs only when the moon is over the southern hemisphere.

Below is a  simulation of the tractional tidal force field from August 1st until October 1st 2014 (when my computer crashed). This is a 2-hour step simulation including the 24 hour rotation  of the earth centred on 30W which shows how strong the tides get before we enter into a quieter period.

So here then is our “tongue in cheek”  medium range weather forecast for Europe.

There will be unsettled weather in northern Europe until the second half of August. This will be followed by  an extended period of warm calm weather for about one month. UK will then have a pleasant Indian Summer. There will be a week of changeable stormy weather around the 5th September to spoil the otherwise pleasant weather.

Let’s wait and see if changing tidal forces on the Jet Stream actually do have any effect on the weather at high latitudes!

P.S. It is already raining here in the UK.


About Clive Best

PhD High Energy Physics Worked at CERN, Rutherford Lab, JET, JRC, OSVision
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6 Responses to Supermoon weather forecast !

  1. Euan Mearns says:

    P.S. It is already raining here in the UK.

    Not in Aberdeen – not had a drop all day! Do you know how many rain free days the UK gets each year?

    Great post, and since I attach value to history matching I will keep a record and see how accurate it is measured against reality. I hope it is accurate since I could do with a long warm Indian Summer!

    The music is great! Details of artist, album and track appreciated:-)


    • Clive Best says:

      I bet it’s raining in Aberdeen by now !

      A series of thunderstorms have been slowly working their way up the east coast. Whether it has anything to do with strong tides is the question. At least I have written a program which can tell you the horizontal tidal force for any point on the earth’s surface and for any date and time. On the downside I got several headaches on the way as it is not quite as simple as you might imagine!

      Now all I have to do is to convince the Met Office that they need to include tides in their general circulation models !

      The music is a “rights free” country music track taken from in principal be sued for royalties !

  2. Euan Mearns says:

    Clive, when is the Indian Summer going to start? We had 3?C in Aberdeen last night with frost in rural areas!

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