There has been no change in UK average temperatures in summer(JJA) or in Spring(MAM) for the last 367 years. The two hottest summers were 1826 (17.6C) and 1976(17.8C). I remember 1976 as the perfect summer with two months of continuous sunshine, causing a severe drought. The two coldest winters were 1740 (-0.73C) and 1963 (-0.07C). 1963 was the perfect time to be a small child aged 10, sledging every weekend. These extremes have not been exceeded for the last 40 years.
Monthly averaged temperatures for winter(DJF), Spring (MAM), Summer (JJA) and Autumn (SON). Data curtesy of the UK Met Office
If you are looking for evidence of climate change in the UK then you will notice a possible small upturn of < 1C since 1950 during Autumn and Winter. This supports the argument made in the last post that any small increase in CO2 forcing mainly changes meridional heat transport during winter. It could also be due to the urban heating effect from buildings during winter months.
Here is the annual data. The one you see plotted say by Ed Hawkins is instead as temperature ‘anomalies’ relative to a 1961-1990 average. This is baseline is represented by the bottom red line.
CET Annual average temperatures. The two red lines show the 1961-1990 average used by Hadley and CRU to define anomalies.
On that basis you could argue that the UK has ‘warmed’ by 0.6 ± 0.4C since 1960. That increase is due to changes in autumn and winter temperatures.
Update: On request of Joe Public here is the comparison to CO2 levels in the atmosphere as measured at Mauna-Loa extrapolated back to 1750 (280 ppm)
Any chance of plotting CO2 on the ‘CET Annual average temperatures’ chart, so its influence (or lack of) can be observed?
Here it is
Bloody hell, that was quick. Thanks Clive!
Clive would you give some details of the extrapolation from 1959 to 1750 for co2 levels please.
From 1960 there is a much better correlation between change in CO2 level from previous year and temperature anomaly – for what it’s worth.
http://jeremyshiers.com/blog/correlation-co2-temperature-0-02-2004-14-0-02-1960-76/
Hi Jeremy,
All I did was to extrapolate backwards from 1959 to 1750 using an exponential decay. There is also some ice core data on CO2 which I used in the post about the BERN carbon model, which more or less agrees with this (yellow trace below)
Yes CO2 is clearly ‘correlated’ with temperature anomalies, but it isn’t a simple cause and effect relationship. CO2 is usually be a feedback as during the glacial cycles. Today it is a forcing on climate. If CO2 emissions stabilise then warming will slow rather quickly. The key first aim is first to stop increasing emissions.
Clive, thanks for you posts.
I notice in the CET plot that the dips associated with the 1883 Krakatoa eruption and 1815 Tambora (3X larger) are barely discernible. In your opinion is this due to the small affect of the major volcanic events or is it that CET variability is dominated by the AMOC? Is there any accurate time plot (not Rahmstorf (2015) of the strength of the AMOC? If so, can you link it or compare it with the CET plot? Thanks.
Tamboura you can see as one of the dips – 1815, but I agree it isn’t that noticeable. What is more of a mystery is exactly what happened in 1740.
http://www.doonbleisce.com/The%20Great%20Frost%20in%20Ireland%20-%20%201740%20-%201741.htm
Could it be the Plinian eruption of mount Tarumae (VEI5) in 1739? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mount_Tarumae
That’s interesting. I wonder if Japan and China also recorded a colder climate. The report by Eileen Moloney mentions an eruption on the Kamchatka peninsula in Russia. However I can find no other reference to it.
This graph looks nothing like the actual data. Nice try though. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Central_England_temperature
The data are identical. The graph shown in wikipedia is the annual average temperatures. This should be compared to the second graph shown above. The values agree perfectly.
CET data are also published for each month of each year. The seasonal data are then calculated from this using 3 monthly averages for each season. This is the first graph which shows that summer and spring show no warming effect. Only Autumn and Winter show small warming post 1950.
So my graphs are correct. Nice try though!
Yeah, I noticed the Wikipedia graph used average, but gave no indication of how they calculated that average. Was the average in 1700 based on data prior to that date or post? And how was average from the first year of date calculated? By month? By year? Math can be fun, but can also be used as a tool. Like when crime went up 200% in my neighborhood. The previous year there was only one robbery.
Your name apparently some you up to a tee your foul mouthed person
Quotes from the terrible winter of 1740.
Dr Huxham of Plymouth
George Smith, Richmand, Surrey
Pingback: Central England Temperatures 1659-2016 – Climate Collections
Clive, if you’re unaware – a new post on WUWT:
“What do three CET reference weather stations used by the Met Office have in common?”
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2017/01/29/what-do-three-cet-reference-weather-stations-used-by-the-met-office-have-in-common/
How about the FIVE hottest summers? 1826, 1976, 1995, 2003, 2005?
How about the fact your first chart has no trend or smoothing to prove your claim, and that summer temps have increased from 15°C in 1559-60 to around 16°C in recent years?
How about the fact that the summer average for the first 20 years 1559-1678 is 15.2°C, and the last 20 years 1997-2016 is 15.92°C?
The year to year variability is > 1C. Yes I can fit a trend through summer. Here it is. I don’t see any significant warming at all – do you?
Not much use quoting Winter temps – you’ve averaged January, February and December from the SAME YEAR. That’s averaging parts of TWO winters. Winter 1963 wasn’t one of the two coldest, but the third coldest. 1684 was coldest at -1.67°C, followed by 1740 at -0.4°C, and 1963 at -0.33°C. When I was a small child, winter was December, January, February, in that order, and still is.
Yes you’re right. I was being lazy because I didn’t want to write software. So I did it anyway and here is the winter calculated correctly D,J,F where December is from the previous year.
Yes indeed 1684 is the coldest !
Yes, I do, but not using your “trend” which isn’t a trend, but looks like Loess with a rather high smoothing parameter. Smoothing ain’t a trend by any mathematical definition. How many summers over 17°C, and when did they occur?
You mean by a trend a linear fit to a straight line, while I mean a decadal moving average.
We’re still waiting for another glorious summer like 1976. It has not yet been equaled.
Hi Clive!
Interesting to look at the CET for seasons. You write:
“If you are looking for evidence of climate change in the UK then you will notice a possible small upturn of < 1C since 1950 during Autumn and Winter. This supports the argument made in the last post that any small increase in CO2 forcing mainly changes meridional heat transport during winter. It could also be due to the urban heating effect from buildings during winter months."
There could be another explanation.
The Meteorological Office continued the CET from 1974, and they don't use temperatures from e.g. Oxford as the original temperature series. Philip Eden write about it here and link to his own version more in line with the original temperature series:
http://www.climate-uk.com/page5.html
I plotted his data from 1971 on, and it shows another picture. I don't seem to be able to upload my plot here!?
Sincerely
John Niclasen
(Master degree in physics)
Interesting! I wondered who originated the CET series. Can’t imagine why they would drop Oxford after 1974.
However the UK is between the Atlantic Ocean where temperatures have actually fallen south of Iceland and continental Europe and Russia where temperatures have increased so our CET series as you would expect shows little increase over recent years as we are between the ocean and large land mass.
Mark, you are correct that CET must be influenced by the North Atlantic, which I think has a warming hole south of Greenland. If the CET in fact has been stabilized by a marine cooling effect, the separation of trend of winter from summer looks a lot like a UHI fingerprint.
* Some notes on fear of death from summer heat. *
I noticed the same with Swedish temperature series from Stockholm. The summer months has not increased much since 1756.
I think the sun dominates by heating objects in the summer but in the winter solar power is off. Ocean temperatures then become the more dominating heating source.
As the direct solar heating capacity of some 1000 Watt per square meter on a summers day is enormous compared to ~1-2 Watt extra power from CO2 – the direct contribution to drive the temperature to a maximum is negligible.
Energy imbalances from earth to outer space is a long term relationship and slowly, slowly increases/decreases the global energy store.
Global warming/cooling is not the sun frying us. It is a radiative imbalance noticeable by checking the energy content in oceans, land and air.
It is a large thermal battery. It will not be able to kill us instantly, but rather slowly.
Thanks for your website, Clive. Just came here because I just can’t believe the Met’s CET! Yesterday (here in Reading) it seemed VERY cool for late May.
Clive ae you still posting updates? – would like your opinion on the recent summer 2022 – did it match 1976?
Thanks for reminding me !
There is always a delay in updating CET but I definitely will look at this next month !