Do CMIP6 models match the data?

Here is a comparison between my calculation of  global temperature data (spherical triangulation) and a sample of CMIP6 models blended so as to to match SST and land data (see here)

Comparison of monthly temperature anomalies and a sample of “blended” models with a common baseline of 1961-1990

The model data are computed as temperature anomalies on the same baseline as the data (1961-1990), so they all align themselves during this 30 year timespan. The real comparison  is  just on the temperatures trends post 1990.

It seems clear that low sensitivity models are more favoured.  This result implies that we can probably expect an average  rise in temperature since 1960 of about  1.5C  in 2050.

 

About Clive Best

PhD High Energy Physics Worked at CERN, Rutherford Lab, JET, JRC, OSVision
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3 Responses to Do CMIP6 models match the data?

  1. entropicman says:

    There goes the Paris Agreement.

  2. brianrlcatt says:

    Up? Why? It really should be going down now. The reality of multi period (solar wind driven?) cyclic change with NO monotonic features as recently as 2016, says cooling should be inevitable’ish …..

    Perhaps the 2016 El Nono was the dying gasp of this millenial warming, from the coldest floor temperature “ever”, in the recent interglacial past at least, since ice core records began, etc.- and still only matched the 1998 El Nono.

    Prophesy: A change is gonna come, and it ain’t warming. Cold kills far more than warm. It is c.6 degrees colder than the last interglacial maximum, when Hippos and Heffalumps lived on the Thames. And in Derby. Who knew> Well, everyone involved in geology should have done. But GSL now denies this as well… you can’t make it up. That’s their job..

  3. The ocean models are starting to include long-period tidal factors, see this pending submission

    https://github.com/mom-ocean/MOM5/pull/337

    There should be huge interest in a reduced DOF model fit to ENSO applying the detailed lunar ephemeris

    https://geoenergymath.com/2021/05/13/low-dof-enso-model/

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