Tag Archives: GCM

Climate Models compared to Hadcrut4

Posted on October 18, 2015 by Clive Best

Estimates of future climate change are based on the mean ‘projection’ across an ensemble of models. This is based on an assumption that each model is equally likely, but is that really true?  Surely it is far more likely that just one of the models … Continue reading →

Posted in AGW, Climate Change, climate science, GCM, Institiutions, IPCC, NOAA, Science | Tagged , | 23 Comments

Not all CMIP5 models can be correct

Posted on October 13, 2015 by Clive Best

Ed Hawkins has an interesting new paper which discusses why models use temperature anomalies and how the normalisation period chosen can affect the results. The main reason why anomalies are needed in the first place is because the models have a large spread … Continue reading →

Posted in AGW, Climate Change, climate science, GCM, Science | Tagged , , | 20 Comments

Sherwood Forest

Posted on January 4, 2014 by Clive Best

The paper: “Spread in model climate sensitivity traced to atmospheric convective mixing by Sherwood, Bony & Dufresne, Nature 2/1/14”  has generated a lot of media hype that global warming by 2100 will be > 4C. It  has also  recently been highlighted on realclimate. … Continue reading →

Posted in AGW, Climate Change, climate science, GCM, Science | Tagged , , , , | 10 Comments