July’s global temperature anomaly of 1.20C was the third highest temperatures in the series since February 2016 (1.26C) and March 2016 (1.23C).
Monthly temperature anomaly series
A strong El Nino has developed similar to that in 2016
Individual elements are triangular mesh elements on the earth’s surface
The average annual temperature for 2023 can be estimated from the first 7 months of data available. So far it is possible that 2023 will be slightly warmer than 2016. We will have to wait another 5 months to confirm that. Either way both years are on a par with each other.
Annual global temperature anomalies relative to a 1961 – 1990 baseline. The red curve is the decadal average temperature calculated on an icosahedral grid. The value for 2023 is for the first 7 months.
The best estimate of the slight rise in global temperatures is the decadal average which smooths out El Nino and other natural effects. Essentially each bin is a 10 year average of all temperatures contained within it. See here for details
Hello Clive,
I suspect that if the series has settled into this pattern then 2024 may well look like 2017 .
We may have to wait a little longer for the “climate timebomb” to go off, how long now ? 7 yeasr before we all boil ?, or not .
So are we in a plateau now like 1940-1960 ?
Thanks
Forbin
2024 will probably be the warmest year recorded and we will hear a lot of doom mongering as a result. I wonder whether the Tonga eruption has played a role. It emitted huge amounts of water vapour into the stratosphere. As that water vapour descends back into the troposphere it must increase the net greenhouse effect. If so then the next few years may be cooler.
Clive,
“So far it is possible that 2023 will be slightly warmer than 2016.”
I think it is likely that it will be a lot warmer. The hot months in 2016 were Jan-April. The key thing about July 2023 is that it was a lot hotter than 2016, in fact 0.3C hotter than any other July. As I set out here
https://moyhu.blogspot.com/2023/08/graphs-showing-leadup-to-record-hot-year.html
the year to date avreage is already (in July) ahead of any full year, and with hot months to come vs 2016 cool, can only increase that margin.
I have results now for August. It is similar to July at 1.12 (1961-90 base), and similarly about 0.24C above the next warmer August. That puts 2023 a clear 0.05C above 2016, with much El Nino to come.
https://moyhu.blogspot.com/p/latest-ice-and-temperature-data.html#hottest
Yes the monthly pattern for 2023 does look different to other years. Why should that be though ? Could it be the Tonga eruption ? Your right that if it now follows previous yearly trends it will be significantly warmer that 2016.
I rely on the met office HADSST4 data which is always later than ERSST !
2015, a developing nino year, is the enso analog to 2023. If nino peaks this winter, as expected, 2016 will be an analog for 2024.
So you imply that 2024 will be even warmer !
Interesting times. The war in Ukraine is also adding ~ 200MT of CO2 emissions annually and indirectly far more than that through deforestation, methane emissions from the destroyed NordStream pipeline and by consequent liquid gas shipments.