July’s global temperature anomaly of 1.20C was the third highest temperatures in the series since February 2016 (1.26C) and March 2016 (1.23C).
A strong El Nino has developed similar to that in 2016
The average annual temperature for 2023 can be estimated from the first 7 months of data available. So far it is possible that 2023 will be slightly warmer than 2016. We will have to wait another 5 months to confirm that. Either way both years are on a par with each other.
The best estimate of the slight rise in global temperatures is the decadal average which smooths out El Nino and other natural effects. Essentially each bin is a 10 year average of all temperatures contained within it. See here for details