Richard Betts/Met Office warming Indicator

The Met Office are proposing to use a 10 year average temperature indicator to define when and if the 1.5 degree since industrial periods will be exceeded. The pre-industrial period is defined as 1850-1900 which is different from  the 1961- 1990 baseline that are used for calculating station anomalies because this maximises the available station count. The offset for the preindustrial period is consequentially based on  these anomaly values  before 1900. 

A comparison of the latest HadCRUT5 with my Spherical triangulation results shows an  almost perfect agreement between the two methods.  This then results in a joint pre-industrial baseline (1850-1900) of -0.4C.  Thus the Paris agreement to limit total warming to 1.5C equates to limiting these measured (baseline) temperature anomalies to less that 1.1C.

It is clearly evident that the year to year variability is large, for example due to El Nino and other transient effects which makes estimating the effect due to CO2 alone difficult. However there is another way to calculate global temperatures which allows for far longer integration periods avoiding this problem. This is based on Icosahedral 3D binning as I described here. This method allows for  the integration period in each cell to be extended up to a decade. These are the results that I get using the latest complete 2010s decade measurements.

Views of the 3D equal size Icosahedral bins for 2011-2020

Temperature anomalies calculated on a regular icosahedron Click here to view in 3D

Now we compare the decadal temperature values with the normal annual calculated values by spherical triangulation.

Annual temperature trends updated for October 2023 compared to the underlying decadal trends.

This result proves that the decadal temperatures describe very well the underlying temperature trends in the data,  unaffected by annual variability. As a consequence of this we can simply extrapolate the observed linear decadal trend forward in time to determine when the Paris agreement limit of 1.5 degrees will likely be exceeded.

The observed stable decadal trend shows that the Paris Agreement to limit warming to 1.5C since the preindustrial level will very likely be exceeded in 2032

The conclusion is that a net warming of 1.5C since preindustrial times exceeding the Paris Agreement will most likely occur in 2032. This figure of 1.5C, if I remember well, was anyway a compromise resolution made at the end of the conference.

About Clive Best

PhD High Energy Physics Worked at CERN, Rutherford Lab, JET, JRC, OSVision
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4 Responses to Richard Betts/Met Office warming Indicator

  1. Douglas Brodie says:

    Professor Richard Betts MBE is a puppet of the disgracefully dishonest climate propagandist UK Met Office. He plays along with the corrupt UN IPCC who pretend to cover climate change in the round but, by never-publicised official mandate, only consider alleged man-made risks to the climate, ignoring climate natural variability.

    The Met Office lie (by omission) to pretend that the 2023 abnormal global warming is man-made while studiously ignoring the 1922 Hunga Tonga undersea volcanic eruption. It is obvious (to a mere layman) that this eruption (not the El Nino) is the cause of the recent unprecedented global temperature spike.

    Any comments?

  2. Barry Robins says:

    Are you certain from the comparison of decadal temperature rise and increase in CO2 levels, that this actually indicates a link. To extrapolate that cloud and water vapour have no effect seems a big jump. The doubt has always been cast, as CO2 level increases, in past interglacials, follows temperature rise by around 1200 years.

    And basically reaching 1.5° temperature rise, will merely match temperatures in the Roman and Medieval warm periods. Again questioning the actual causation by CO2 levels. And more to the point, what appears to be a nonsense idea of a cataclysmic tipping point. Would welcome your comment.

  3. forbin says:

    Hello Clive

    I see you re-posted after my breif comment earlier ( now gone ) . I thought it would bring a smile to your face when look at gridwatch today like I have just now – our 30GW capacity 17th century power generators are contributing a mere 1GWh for a demand of greater 40GWh as I type . Another wind drought for which the Greens have no answer to .

    However I see whats left of our nukes is producing more than the supposed re-newable in total . When will the politcal class get the message ? or will they stay forever locked into their religious green beleifs ?

    I take it you saw the Met Office on the Artic sea ice ;-

    “While Antarctic sea ice extent is projected to decrease under climate change (e.g., Holmes et al., 2022), it should be noted that over the whole era of satellite observations (since 1979) the trend in Antarctic sea ice extent is not yet significantly different from zero.”

    Strangely “zero” when if I am supposed to believe the headlines , we’re going to die from boiling ?

    Having just a Maths and Physics “A” levels ( old school version ) I must be too thick to understand it all .

    Hey ho .

    Forbin

  4. Clive Best says:

    Sorry about the first post. I had to rush out to pick my wife up in the freezing weather, but when I got back closed a number of open windows editing my website. Somehow I screwed up and lost the entire post I had just published. I then had to write it all again in a hurry.

    This cold still weather proves that wind and solar can’t work when you really need them. The last few coal stations are at max outputto keep the lights on. Roger Harrabin and Carbonbrief go quiet when renewable energy fail completeley.

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