I show below an animation of the results from the CMIP5 model CNRM-CM5 for predicted global warming under the worst case scenario RCP8.5. Normaly such results are shown as temperature anomalies so that northern zones appear to be getting relatively much warmer. Here the results are shown as absolute temperatures in degrees centigrade. This demonstrates that although temperatures rise, climate zones don’t expand that much.
The data are decadel temperature averages calculated on a 1×1 degree grid. I will look at Europe in a bit more detail in the next post.
Clive,
You state, “Here the results are shown as absolute temperatures in degrees centigrade. This demonstrates that although temperatures rise, climate zones don’t expand that much.” If I may, how did you arrive at that conclusion? To my view there is a pretty stunning change in temperature (presumed climate) regimes in N and S Americas, Africa, Australia, and agriculturally important areas in Eurasia. Further, those changes appear to begin in the early 2000s, about now actually. Am I missing something, or seeing something that is not there?
Bryce,
I was really meaning that tropical regions don’t expand as much as I expected. Temperatures rise and zonal circulation increases. This may bring more rainfall and tropical storms, but it is not the end of the world. Agriculture will adapt. I don’t see the corn belt disappearing in N. America any time soon. Australia may actually get wetter.
These are worst case scenarios based on RCP8.5. That assumes that the carbon cycle saturates and more CO2 emissions are retained in the atmosphere than currently (50%). Current trends favour a lower climate sensitvity so that even with RCP8.5 DT(2100) is more likely 3C. China has only promissed to stabilise its increase in emissions by 2050 and India has mode no commitment at all. So unfortunately we or out grandchildren will probably find out who is right.