The global temperature anomaly for July was 1.27 deg.C relative to a 1961-1990 baseline. These results use GCHN monthly land temperatures combined with HadSST4 ocean temperatures. I use a novel method to calculate this using a 3D spherical triangulation of the earth’s surface. This is shown below.
July 24 Spatial temperatures
The monthly trends relative to the 1961-1990 baseline are shown below.
One of the problems with Global Warming is that the underlying temperature trends are superimposed on far larger but shorter natural variability cycles (El Nino) and Volcanic Eruptions (Hunga Tonga). Therefore it makes little sense to push for action based on just one month’s temperature. It may even take another decade to be certain that average temperatures really have exceeded 1.5 C.
A far better method to determine when this will happen is based on using Icosahedral grids with decadal averaging
The observed stable decadal trend shows that the Paris Agreement to limit warming to 1.5C since the preindustrial level will very likely be exceeded in 2032
2032 !
Summary at (search my name and water vapor vs CO2 for planet warming) shows that ‘extra’ water vapor, above that from planet warming feedback, is from human activity, mostly irrigation, & can explain 2/3 of average global temperature increase since 1909 with no significant contribution from burning fossil fuels.
I have been aware of this work by Dan Pangburn for a while and find it pretty convincing. To make it easier to get there, here is a link to it: https://watervaporandwarming.blogspot.com/2019/11/abstract-during-time-periodwhen-water.html
– and then click on “Read More” at the bottom right.
Note that it has been updated a few times since 2019.
Figure 6 depicting man’s water withdrawal, if plotted on the right scales, would look something like a hockey stick.
Can any of the learned readers out there find anything wrong with it ?
Thanks Bob for the link. It certainly makes sense because the oceans cover 71% of the oceans. and the watre cycle drives weather systems.
I am sure you are right. The Oceans cover 71% of the Earth’s surface and provides a climate suitable for life to thrive. Humans (and other species to some extent) have an effect on the water cycle and the water content of the atmosphere. Farming and forest clearance clearly has had a huge effect. This impact would increase if we tried to build thousands of massive wind farms.
Your estimate that human impact on the water cycle is about twice that as compared to CO2 maybe right. Modern cities with highways and concrete clearly affect the climate in cities. A similar effect on the water cycle seems reasonable, but how do you quantify it ?
Another paper which tends to support the conclusions of Dan Pangburn is: “Earth’s Temperature Versus the Sun, Water Vapor and CO2” by Douglas Lightfoot, 2021:
http://thelightfootinstitute.ca/imglib/Earth_temp_paper.pdf
The paper finds that changes in specific humidity are consistent with the observed rise in temperature of 0.5C in the 40 years up to 2011. It then draws on recent measurements of temperature and relative humidity from a wide range of latitudes, and times, both north and southern hemispheres, to calculate specific humidities, including corrections for elevation. It goes on to compare the warming by water vapour with that by the main non-condensing greenhouse gases, and concludes that “warming by water vapor overwhelms that of CO2 and the other non-condensing GHGs and renders their warming ineffective”.